The European aviation sector facing the deadlock of sustainable fuels: a 20% target by 2035 deemed unrealistic
The European aeronautical industry is facing a major challenge: the transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is proving far more complex than expected. While the European Union is imposing an ambitious timeline to reduce the sector's carbon footprint, current production capacities are struggling to keep up. In 2024, SAF accounted for just 0.6% of fuels used in the EU, a figure far below the set targets. The accumulated delays raise questions about the feasibility of the 2035 and 2050 deadlines, as competition for energy resources intensifies among different modes of transport. This situation could not only slow down the decarbonization of the aviation sector but also lead to economic and geographical distortions, with a possible shift of activities to regions with less stringent environmental regulations.
The trajectory set by the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation provides for a gradual incorporation of SAF, with binding milestones: 2% in 2025, 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035, and up to 70% in 2050. However, available data reveals a glaring gap between these ambitions and industrial reality. In 2026, global SAF production is expected to reach 2.4 million tonnes, less than 1% of total kerosene consumption. This structural shortage is explained by several factors, including a lack of dedicated infrastructure, high production costs, and increased competition for sustainable raw materials. Biofuels, green electricity, and hydrogen are also coveted by maritime and road transport, further complicating access to the resources needed for aviation.
The consequences of such delays could be severe for the European aviation sector. While airlines are willing to incorporate more SAF, they are facing insufficient supply, which could lead to operational cost overruns and a loss of competitiveness. Some players may be tempted to relocate their activities to regions less subject to these constraints, such as North America or Asia, where environmental regulations are less stringent. To avoid this scenario, the EU will likely need to strengthen its incentive mechanisms, particularly through public subsidies and strategic partnerships with biofuel producers. A more flexible approach, combining progressive targets and targeted investments, could help accelerate the ramp-up of SAF without stifling the industry.
The energy transition in air transport is not just a technical or economic challenge: it concerns the very future of sustainable mobility. Reports from the IPCC and the GIEC underscore the urgency of drastically reducing CO₂ emissions, and aviation, responsible for 2 to 3% of global emissions, cannot remain on the sidelines of this transition. However, current delays in SAF deployment show that solutions cannot rely solely on binding regulations. Strengthened collaboration between governments, industry players, and researchers will be essential to develop alternative technologies, optimize supply chains, and secure resources. Without this, the risk is high that the European aviation sector's climate goals will remain a dead letter, to the detriment of the planet and the competitiveness of the Old Continent.